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XAUUSD: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

Gold starts the week with support from a weakening dollar and falling oil prices. Cheaper energy reduces fears of an immediate Fed tightening and improves the position of the metal, which does not yield interest income. At the same time, uncertainty in the Middle East maintains interest in safe-haven assets, despite reports of an energy truce in Europe.

The main test will be US inflation data: a slowdown could ease yield pressure and support XAUUSD. However, the October Fed pause is already largely expected, and the probability of a December rate hike remains high. Therefore, the growth idea assumes a calm reaction from the bond market to the statistics; accelerating prices and a strengthening dollar could cancel it out.

Trading idea: BUY 4202.88, SL 4142.88, TP 4334.88

#SP500: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

The corporate earnings season becomes the main test for US stocks. Results from major banks are scheduled for Tuesday, and the current valuation of quarterly profit growth for index companies stands at 29.6% year-on-year. This supports demand for stocks, but strong expectations require confirmation: past results are important, but so are company forecasts.

Falling oil prices can ease business costs and reduce concerns about further rate hikes. The limitation remains the high yield on US bonds: it raises investors' requirements for corporate profits. If earnings meet expectations and inflation data does not intensify the pressure on the cost of money, the weekly scenario allows for #SP500 growth.

Trading idea: BUY 7836, SL 7766, TP 8011

#BRENT: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

For oil, the main change has been expectations of supply expansion. US statements about supplying Russian diesel and stopping attacks on energy facilities weaken deficit fears. However, the durability of the announced truce has not yet been confirmed by both sides. Pressure on #BRENT arises through reduced disruption risk, not through proven production increases.

At the same time, attacks on tankers and the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East maintain the threat to export flows. Therefore, the weekly downside idea depends on the emergence of confirmations regarding supply availability and the absence of new serious disruptions. While the market assesses the possibility of a deficit reduction, selling #BRENT remains the base scenario; worsening transport security could cancel it out.

Trading idea: SELL 101.36, SL 104.36, TP 95.36

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Event to watch today:

USDJPY:

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After raising the rate to 1.25% in September, the Bank of Japan remains on a path of policy tightening. Expectations of another hike by year-end support the yen, although the dollar's interest advantage persists. Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday, so reduced liquidity may amplify the currency's reaction to external news without changes in the domestic economic picture.

The decline in oil prices at the start of the week potentially eases Japan's energy import costs. This is a favorable factor for the yen, while for the dollar, reduced energy pressure diminishes the urgency for further Federal Reserve tightening. In the current session, this combination allows for a reduction in demand for dollar positions, but it does not itself prove a reversal of US monetary policy.

High yields on US assets limit the scope for a bearish USDJPY idea. A resumption of oil price growth could again worsen the yen's position, and the risk of action by Japanese authorities cannot be considered confirmed intervention. With a calmer energy backdrop, expectations of a Japanese rate hike provide grounds for moderate yen strengthening.

Trading idea: SELL 158.20, SL 158.50, TP 157.60

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The US stock market remains close to record levels, but one of its key growth drivers is beginning to create a new problem. The massive construction of data centers and purchases of artificial intelligence equipment are increasingly being financed not with companies’ available cash, but through new borrowing.

In the current session, #NQ100 is trading around 31,118 points, following a recent rise above 31,200, while #SP500 is trading near 7,794 points, retreating from levels above 7,830. So far, the move looks more like a minor correction after a strong rally. However, the increase in corporate debt has coincided with US Treasury yields remaining near multi-year highs.

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Why Is AI Becoming More Expensive?

• Technology companies are increasingly borrowing money. Over the past year, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have issued around $220 billion in bonds, directing a significant portion of the capital toward data centers, computing capacity, and other AI infrastructure.
• Debt is starting to compete for investors’ money. At the same time, the US government is issuing huge amounts of debt. The more new securities enter the market, the higher the yields that need to be offered to investors, making it more expensive to finance further growth.
• High yields are already weighing on stock indices. Rising borrowing costs are particularly sensitive for technology companies, whose valuations are largely based on future earnings. As a result, #NQ100 is becoming increasingly dependent on whether the debt market can stabilize.

#Oracle Shows the Other Side of the AI Boom

Oracle (#Oracle) is a good example of how the market has started to assess not only the prospects of artificial intelligence, but also the cost of financing them. The company is aggressively expanding its cloud infrastructure and data centers, but this requires it to significantly increase borrowing and long-term financial obligations.

At the beginning of September, #Oracle shares rose above $165, before pulling back and now trading at around $143.59. This means that despite strong demand for computing capacity, the stock is approximately 13–14% below its recent high. For traders, this is a telling signal: the market is no longer willing to automatically reward every new AI investment if it comes with rapidly rising debt.

The situation becomes particularly important against the backdrop of high interest rates. The yield on 10-year US government bonds remains above 5%, while the technology sector’s enormous capital requirements are putting additional pressure on financing costs.

According to FreshForex analysts, in the short term, increased pressure on US indices is more likely than another rapid move higher. #NQ100 has so far failed to firmly break above the 31,200–31,300 area, while #SP500 has retreated from levels above 7,830. If borrowing costs continue to rise, #NQ100 could correct toward 30,700–30,900, while #SP500 could move toward 7,700–7,750. The performance of #Oracle around $143.59 further shows that investors are already becoming more selective when it comes to companies financing their AI expansion through debt.

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Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

GBPUSD:

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The Bank of England remains focused on inflation: yesterday, Chief Economist Hugh Pill emphasized the need to curb price growth. At the September meeting, he and two other participants advocated for a rate hike. For the pound, this supports expectations of policy tightening, although the majority's decision to hold rates shows that the next step is not yet predetermined.

UK budgetary risks limit the strength of this argument. Andrew Bailey highlighted the importance of credible fiscal policy amid stress in debt markets. Rising bond yields may reflect an increased risk premium rather than improved prospects for the pound. Therefore, confidence in funding government spending is crucial for sustained currency growth.

In the current session, the pound is aided by a slowdown in dollar strengthening as US yields decline. The University of Michigan report could amplify this effect if it confirms deteriorating consumer sentiment. Conversely, a strong result alongside rising inflation expectations would support the dollar. With the US interest rate momentum weakening, BoE expectations provide grounds for moderate GBPUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3240, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3315

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XAUUSD: SELL 4118.29-4169.89, TP1-4066.59, TP2-3898.69.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4405.00–4455.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being conducted below this range, indicating weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4157.00-4175.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being conducted below this range, indicating strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 07.10.2026.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4118.29.

Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4169.89.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 07.10.2026–4066.59.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3898.69.

Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when a reversal pattern forms.

Sell: 4118.29-4169.89, Take Profit 1–4066.59, Take Profit 2–3898.69.

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Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude oil inventory data from the Department of Energy

21:00 EET. USD - Release of the FOMC meeting minutes

USDJPY:

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The US-Japan yield spread continues to support USDJPY despite new arguments in favor of the yen. For investors, not only the next step by central banks matters, but also the return on deploying funds starting today. High yields on US bonds keep dollar assets attractive, while Japanese policy implies gradual changes.

Real wages in Japan rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, and nominal wages by 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations. This improves purchasing power and strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, the growth of real wages has slowed, and statements about gradual tightening do not confirm a sharp reduction in the interest rate differential in the near term.

Weaker US inflation and employment data limit the dollar's potential; signals from the FOMC minutes are important today. A decline in US yields or new official warnings from Japan could change the scenario. As long as the advantage of dollar assets outweighs support for the yen, the idea of USDJPY rising remains without expecting accelerated movement.

Trading idea: BUY 158.40, SL 158.05, TP 159.15

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The euro has come under renewed pressure from several factors at once. Investors are concerned about the state of France’s public finances, the US dollar remains strong thanks to high US Treasury yields, while expectations for the ECB’s future policy remain mixed.

The spread between the yields on 10-year French and German government bonds recently exceeded 150 basis points — the highest level since 2011. This is a worrying signal for the market: investors are demanding an increasingly higher premium for holding French debt, while political difficulties surrounding the budget are adding to uncertainty.

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EURUSD fell below 1.12

On October 5, EURUSD briefly fell to 1.1160 — its lowest level since May 2025. On the morning of October 6, the pair recovered to around 1.12, but pressure on the euro remains. On the one hand, concerns over France’s debt continue to deter investors. On the other, the dollar is supported by US Treasury yields, which remain near multi-year highs.

At the same time, the situation is not limited to France. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, so the possibility of further ECB rate hikes remains and could support the euro. For EURUSD to stage a sustained reversal, the market would need a combination of several factors: stabilization of French debt, lower US yields, or stronger expectations of a more hawkish ECB policy. Until that happens, the 1.10–1.11 area remains the main downside target, while a sustained move above 1.12 would be the first sign that sellers are losing momentum.

#CAC40 remains under the most pressure

The French stock market is reacting much more strongly to the situation than the broader European market. #CAC40 is trading around 7,846 points after falling from levels above 8,100 at the end of September. Attempts to recover are currently meeting sellers in the 7,850–7,900 area.

As long as the index remains below 7,900, downside pressure persists. A renewed decline and a sustained break below 7,800 points would confirm that investors are continuing to reduce their exposure to French assets. For the outlook to improve significantly, #CAC40 needs to return above the 7,900–8,000 zone.

#ESTX50 is holding up better for now

The pan-European #ESTX50 is trading around 6,253 points and continues to look more resilient than the French market. After falling to around 6,210–6,220, the index managed to recover, suggesting that investors currently view the problems primarily as French rather than as a full-scale debt crisis across the entire eurozone.

However, the margin of safety is narrowing. If #ESTX50 falls back toward 6,200 and fails to hold this level, the French problem could begin to look like a broader European factor. In that case, pressure on EURUSD could intensify alongside further declines in European stock indices.

According to FreshForex analysts, the most likely scenario at present remains further downside in EURUSD and continued pressure on European equities. As long as the pair remains below 1.12, the main target remains the 1.10–1.11 area. For #CAC40, weakness below 7,900 keeps the risk of further declines elevated, while 6,200 is the key level for #ESTX50.

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Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Trade Balance

GBPUSD:

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The pound maintains its support due to expectations of a tighter Bank of England policy and the government's focus on fiscal discipline. Its strengthening against the euro shows that European debt issues affect currencies unevenly. However, an advantage over the euro does not mean the same advantage over the dollar: for GBP/USD, the comparison of interest rate prospects and the state of the two economies is more important.

The US services sector continues to expand despite the slowdown in the September ISM index. The rise in purchasing prices indicates that weakening employment has not yet eliminated inflation risks. This allows the market to maintain expectations of further Fed rate hikes, even if the next move is delayed, and supports demand for the dollar through high yields on US assets.

Today, the UK construction PMI will serve as a test of domestic activity resilience. Strong data could boost support for the pound, while weak results would highlight the burden of high rates on the economy. Given the current dollar momentum, local arguments are currently insufficient for sustained GBP/USD growth. The sell idea retains its edge, although BoE support limits the downside scope.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3215, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3145

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XAUUSD: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

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The weak US employment report sharply reduced the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in October: job growth in September amounted to 29 thousand, and data for previous months was revised downward. This weakens pressure from monetary policy and supports demand for gold.

At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remains above 5%, which limits the potential of XAUUSD. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting will be a test of the new scenario, but if expectations of a pause persist, the priority remains with the recovery of gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4160.00, SL 4125.00, TP 4247.50

#SP500: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

For the US market, the key change was the reduction in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October after weak employment data. A softer trajectory of the cost of money supports stocks, and Friday's index rise shows that investors currently view slowing hiring more as an argument for a Fed pause.

The limitation remains Treasury bond yields at multi-year highs, increasing requirements for stock valuation. If the Fed minutes do not return the market to tighter expectations, the basic weekly scenario allows for continued growth of #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7725, SL 7680, TP 7835

#BRENT: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

For Brent, the main local factor of the week is supply. OPEC+ maintained its production targets for November, and oil exports from the Middle East have recovered, while G7 countries began releasing part of their emergency reserves. This combination reduces deficit risks and creates downward pressure on prices.

Geopolitical tensions and attacks on infrastructure continue to maintain the risk premium, so declines may remain volatile. However, with high export flows and growing available supply remaining, the basic scenario for the week remains in favor of selling #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 100.50, SL 103.00, TP 94.25

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Micron (#Micron) released a strong quarterly earnings report and confirmed that demand for memory used in artificial intelligence systems remains high. However, the market reaction was much more muted than might have been expected after such results.

In trading on September 30, #Micron shares rose above $1,082 but failed to break through $1,083 and closed the session around $1,066. No significant new momentum emerged after the earnings report either. For traders, this is an important signal: good news is already largely priced into the company’s valuation, so the market now needs increasingly strong catalysts for the rally to continue.

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What matters now for #Micron and #NQ100:

1. #Micron has hit resistance around $1,080–1,083. Buyers have approached the upper boundary several times but have so far failed to break and hold above it. This area is now becoming the nearest resistance level.
2. $1,050 remains the first significant support level. As long as the stock holds above it, the current price action can be viewed as consolidation following a strong rally. A move below $1,050 would increase the likelihood of a deeper profit-taking phase.
3. #NVIDIA remains an important part of the same story. Strong demand for memory used in AI servers confirms that investment in computing infrastructure is continuing. This supports not only #Micron but also the major manufacturers of artificial intelligence hardware.
4. #NQ100 is holding above 30,000 points. The index closed the previous session around 30,400, maintaining its position near record highs. As long as the technology index remains above 30,000, overall interest in the artificial intelligence sector remains strong.

The situation is particularly interesting because the industry’s fundamental backdrop remains strong, while #Micron’s share price has stopped reacting sharply to positive news. This means the market has moved from simply anticipating business growth to more closely assessing whether future results can exceed already-high expectations.

According to FreshForex analysts, the base-case scenario for #Micron remains further growth. As long as the stock holds above $1,050, the current consolidation can be viewed as preparation for another attempt to break through the $1,083 area. Another argument supporting buyers is that Micron has already secured agreements covering a large portion of its HBM memory output for 2027, meaning the company has secured demand in advance for one of the most supply-constrained and profitable products used in AI servers. A sustained break above $1,083 could open the way toward $1,100–1,120, while #NQ100 remaining above 30,000 points would provide additional support for this scenario.

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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Inflation in Tokyo gave the yen fresh support: the core measure excluding fresh food accelerated in September to 2.7% from 1.8%, exceeding expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation excluding fresh food and fuel reached 3%, and services inflation also strengthened. This expands the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, although part of the acceleration is linked to the end of subsidies.

High US bond yields continue to support the dollar, but their rise cannot be fully explained by expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. Softer US inflation and cautious signals from the regulator have reduced the likelihood of an immediate move. Amid European budget risks, safe-haven demand could support both the dollar and the yen, so their ratio requires separate assessment.

For USD/JPY, the new Japanese inflation signal now creates grounds for a decline despite the persistent interest rate differential. The US employment report could cancel this scenario if strong wage growth again fuels expectations of Fed tightening. Prior to the release, the base idea is to sell the pair: yen support relies on new data, not just the risk of currency intervention.

Trading idea: SELL 157.95, SL 158.30, TP 157.15

BTCUSD: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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Bitcoin continues its desperate resistance. This has once again delayed the emergence of another downward wave of the anticipated correction.

It is likely that a downward movement will occur today after all. It may turn out that the formed downward wave will become a full-fledged final one for the zigzag correction. After this, price growth will resume.

However, it is necessary to monitor how events develop subsequently. For now, it is recommended to consider opening a sell trade at current market prices.

Investment idea: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

The oil market has once again approached a key psychological level. #BRENT is trading around $99.70, recovering after recently falling into the $96–97 range. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop remains tense: U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 283.8 million barrels — the lowest level since October 1982, while the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose a risk of supply disruptions.

What is supporting oil prices right now:
U.S. oil reserves are at their lowest level in more than 40 years. The ability to quickly offset major supply disruptions with additional releases from strategic reserves has become significantly more limited.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still far from a final resolution, so the risk of disruptions to oil supplies continues to be reflected in prices.
Alternative logistics are more expensive. Exporters have to rely on more complicated transportation and transshipment routes, increasing costs and supporting crude prices.
Negotiations are simultaneously limiting the upside. Any signs of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran quickly bring sellers back into the market. As a result, price action remains volatile: several dollars of gains can be followed by an equally rapid correction.
It is precisely this uncertainty that is keeping #BRENT within a broad range. Over the past few sessions, the price has fallen to around $96, climbed back above $100, and then corrected again. This shows that the market has not yet settled on a clear direction, but buyers continue to return actively on dips.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key range for #BRENT right now is $97–101. If oil remains mostly within this range through the beginning of October and does not establish itself below $97, this would indicate that demand is holding up after each correction. In that case, a decisive move above $101 could push the price first toward the $103–105 area and, if tensions surrounding supplies persist, potentially open the way toward $106 and higher. For now, low U.S. reserve levels and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for a significant move higher, rather than simply fluctuations around the $100 level.

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Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP volume quarter-on-quarter

GBPUSD:

The pound is approaching the European session near three-month lows, although the domestic backdrop in the UK does not appear unequivocally weak. The market anticipates a more hawkish trajectory from the Bank of England due to inflationary pressures, and statements on fiscal discipline have partially supported British assets. These factors limit the pace of GBP/USD decline but have not yet formed a sustained bullish momentum for the pound.

The key external factor remains the divergence between high yields in the US and the more vulnerable valuation of British assets. The dollar is supported by strong US economic data and expectations of another Fed rate hike this year. John Williams' statement reduced the likelihood of immediate tightening in October, but the market still awaits confirmation from inflation and employment data.

For GBP/USD, the picture looks more balanced than for the euro: the Bank of England can contain pressure on the pound, but the overall dollar momentum remains stronger. Given the already realized decline, selling potential is limited, so the base scenario assumes moderate continuation of the move, unless US statistics provide grounds for a significant revision of Fed expectations.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3180

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BTCUSD: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

The continuation of the upward movement in the considered trading asset seems to be postponed indefinitely. This is due to the beginning of a corrective decline, which Bitcoin entered after several unsuccessful attempts to resume growth.

In this case, the impulse at this stage of development can be considered complete. It is now worth paying attention to short trades. The target of the movement within this correction could be the minimum of wave (iv), which will be slightly updated, and the price will immediately start moving back up.

Thus, there is a potentially interesting short trade.

Investment idea: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

Gold starts the week under pressure from high US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following the September rate hike, the market is particularly sensitive to PCE inflation and employment data: strong figures can support the dollar and limit the metal's attractiveness.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand and may cap declines, but currently yield to monetary factors. With high yields and hawkish Fed expectations persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards moderate downward pressure on XAUUSD.

Trade Idea: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

#SP500: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

For the US market, the key factor for the week remains the cost of money. US 10-year bond yields remain near multi-year highs, and the market allows for another Fed rate hike. This makes company valuations more sensitive to PCE, employment, and business activity data.

Demand for the technology sector and steady corporate earnings expectations continue to support the index. However, expensive borrowing and the risk of renewed yield growth limit room for a broad rally. Given the current backdrop, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trade Idea: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

#BRENT: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

Brent enters the week with an elevated geopolitical premium after a quick resolution between the US and Iran once again came into question. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and new disruptions could quickly intensify supply concerns and support oil prices.

A restraining factor has been the recovery in Middle East exports: Saudi Arabia and other producers' shipments rose noticeably in September. This limits upside potential but does not eliminate the risk of new logistical disruptions. With tensions persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards buying #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

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Preheader: U.S. yields surge as the advantage shifts back to the U.S. currency

The U.S. dollar is ending the week significantly stronger, but this move is particularly evident across the major currency pairs. On September 25, EURUSD is trading around 1.1370 — its lowest level in two months, while GBPUSD is holding near 1.3220 — close to a three-month low. For the euro, this is already the third consecutive week of declines, while the British pound is having its worst week in roughly four months.

The main momentum is coming from the United States. Following the Fed’s September rate hike, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of further monetary tightening, while a sell-off in U.S. government bonds has pushed long-term yields to their highest levels in more than 20 years. Against this backdrop, the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% this week, but for traders, the more important question is how this move is affecting EURUSD and GBPUSD.

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Why EURUSD continues to decline:

1. U.S. interest rates are becoming more attractive again. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75–4.00% and continues to signal the possibility of further tightening. The higher the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the harder it becomes for EURUSD to recover.
2. The ECB is taking a more cautious approach. The European regulator has also raised its rate to 2.50%, but its officials are trying to contain expectations of rapid further hikes. Christine Lagarde has emphasized that rising energy prices alone are not enough to automatically justify tighter monetary policy.
3. Even strong European data are not helping the euro for now. Eurozone business activity in September came in above expectations, yet EURUSD continued to decline. This shows that the divergence in interest-rate expectations and rising U.S. yields are currently more important to the market than individual positive European indicators.

As a result, EURUSD has moved closer to 1.1370. If selling pressure persists, market attention could shift toward the 1.1300 area, while a return above 1.1450 would be the first sign that the current downward move is losing momentum.

Why GBPUSD is falling even faster:

1. The pound’s interest-rate advantage has narrowed. The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, while the Fed raised the upper bound of its target range to 4.00%. The yield differential is therefore providing less support for the British currency.
2. The U.K. economy remains weak. Business activity slowed in September, while demand for workers remains under pressure. This limits the Bank of England’s ability to raise rates too quickly.
3. High energy prices create a double challenge. They add to inflationary pressure while simultaneously reducing household real incomes and potentially slowing economic growth further.
4. The market is already pricing in further tightening. Several future Bank of England rate hikes are partly reflected in current prices, meaning the pound needs new positive catalysts to sustain a recovery.

As a result, GBPUSD has fallen to around 1.3220 and is down approximately 1.25% since the beginning of the week. A move below 1.3200 could increase pressure on the pair, while a return above 1.3300–1.3350 would be the first sign of a potential recovery.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as U.S. yields remain near multi-year highs, the advantage remains with the dollar, and pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD may continue.

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The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.

This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.

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Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?

1. The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
2. Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
3. Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
4. Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.

At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.

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BTCUSD: FLAT.

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We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.

It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.

In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.

Investment idea: FLAT.

XAUUSD: BUY 4293.47-4347.77, TP1-4402.07, TP2-4561.37.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4390.00–4425.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4366.00-4375.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable buy prices from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 09/18/2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/4–4347.77.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/2–4293.47.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09/18/2026–4402.07.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4561.37.

Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4293.47–4347.77, Take Profit 1–4402.07, Take Profit 2–4561.37.

XAUUSD: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

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The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75–4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

#SP500: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

#BRENT: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

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EURUSD:

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The euro begins the session without clear support after the ECB previously raised rates by 25 basis points. The decision itself has already been largely priced in, and the regulator's recent comments indicate caution regarding further tightening, primarily due to high energy costs. For EUR/USD, this reduces the strength of the local factor in favor of the single currency.

The dollar retains stronger short-term momentum. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate range to 3.75?4.00%, and most officials expect at least one more hike by year-end. Additional support for the US currency comes from fresh statements indicating that inflation remains too high, so the market continues to price in the possibility of further policy tightening.

The interest rate differential still favors the US, while for the eurozone, expensive energy simultaneously poses inflationary and economic risks. Despite the previous sessions' decline in EUR/USD, the dollar factor does not appear fully exhausted. With current expectations maintained, the priority remains a moderate continuation of the pair's decline.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1485, SL 1.1515, TP 1.1410

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Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

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The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce, even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before.

At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently — and that is the key to understanding the current move.

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Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates?

1. The rate hike had already been priced in. The Fed’s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold.
2. Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next. The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down.
3. The oil rally has paused. Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening.
4. Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge. If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400–4,500.

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BTCUSD: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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Bitcoin continues to remain under pressure from which it is trying to break out. This attempt is obviously the reason for the observed weak growth of the asset, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, it has a corrective nature.

In this case, further on, this growth will quickly be replaced by another sharp downward price movement, which will lead to the completion of the development of the assumed corrective wave (iv).

There is no need to rush to make any trading decisions in this situation. However, since the downside potential within the forming correction remains insignificant, it is recommended to start looking for possible entry points for buying.

At the moment, the most safe level for this decision is 79500.

Investment idea: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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It took just one trading session for the semiconductor sector to lose nearly 6% of its value. On September 14, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9%, while #NVIDIA shares dropped around 3.4% and #Micron fell more than 5%. The pressure spread across the broader technology market as well, with the Nasdaq ending the day lower.

The main trigger came from warnings issued by AI company executives. Following concerns about the risks of technology developing too quickly, investors seriously began asking for the first time in a while: what will happen to chipmakers if massive spending on artificial intelligence starts to slow down?

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What spooked investors:

1. The market has started reassessing future demand. #NVIDIA and #Micron have been among the biggest beneficiaries of data center construction and growing demand for computing power. Even a hint of a potential slowdown in AI investment is prompting investors to take a more cautious view of future processor and memory sales.
2. High interest rates are adding pressure. The yield on 10-year US government bonds briefly exceeded 5%, while expectations of another Fed rate hike remain elevated. The more expensive money becomes, the harder it is for technology stocks to justify high valuations.
3. Investors are taking profits after a strong rally. The semiconductor sector remains one of the year's top performers and, even after the sell-off, is still up around 57% since January. Against this backdrop, the emergence of a new risk provided a convenient reason to close some profitable positions.

The problem for the market is that current high valuations of technology companies already largely assume that AI investment will continue growing rapidly. As companies consistently increased spending on equipment and data centers, this scenario worked in favor of chipmakers. Now, the market has to consider the opposite possibility as well.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about the end of the AI boom. Demand for computing power remains high, and a single day of selling does not change the long-term trend. However, the nearly 6% decline showed just how sensitive the sector has become to any doubts about the future pace of artificial intelligence spending.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as pressure on chipmakers persists, it will be harder for #NQ100 to reach new highs. If US Treasury yields remain around 5% and concerns about a slowdown in AI investment intensify, pressure on the technology index could continue.

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Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

15:30 EET. USD - Change in Retail Sales

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The pound approaches the session with weakened internal support following fresh UK labor market data. Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to 3.5%, job vacancies fell to 702 thousand, and employment on payrolls decreased in August. This backdrop reduces pressure on the Bank of England from wages and limits arguments for accelerated policy tightening.

Today, the market awaits UK inflation data for August, and on Thursday, the Bank of England's decision. Consensus expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.1%, but the regulator is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Expensive oil creates a double risk: it intensifies price pressures, but for an energy importer, it increases costs for businesses and households, dampening economic activity.

On the external side, the dollar retains its advantage ahead of the Fed's decision amid high US bond yields and a rate hike that is almost fully priced in. Stronger UK inflation could support the pound, but a weak labor market reduces the likelihood that the local factor will consistently outweigh the dollar's momentum. Under current conditions, the priority remains a decline in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3480, SL 1.3515, TP 1.3400

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XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.

Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

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XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors!

The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision is already partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage ahead of the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Against this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

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