Gold price target in 2025

On the 2025 gold target question, I'd frame it less as a price target and more as a scenario matrix against real yields. The strongest correlation for $GC over the last 15 years is the 10y TIPS yield, inverse, with a beta of about -250 (gold moves about 250 points for every 1% move in real yields in the opposite direction). If you think real yields end 2025 at 1.5%, that's one number. If you think we're headed back toward zero-bound because the Fed pivots on a slowdown, that's a very different number. The target I'd anchor to is whatever your view on real yields implies, not a standalone chart-pattern number. Mine is in the mid-3000s if real yields drift toward 1%, which is probably below consensus but reflects how much the long end has already compressed.